Week 11 College Football Bets

Kevin goes through his favorite bets of the Week 11 college football season.

As we dive into Week 11 of college football, the stakes have never been higher. November marks the heart of conference play, with pivotal matchups that will shape the playoff picture and set the stage for the biggest rivalries to come. The first College Football Playoff rankings are out, adding fuel to debates and raising the intensity across campuses nationwide. With conference championships on the horizon and rivalry games just weeks away, every snap counts, making this week’s slate one to watch closely. Let’s break down the key bets for Week 11 and see which teams will rise—or fall—as the season races toward its thrilling conclusion.

SDSU -2.5 Over New Mexico

I’m backing San Diego State over New Mexico this week, and the reasons stack up pretty well. Historically, the Aztecs dominate this series, with a nine-game win streak against the Lobos dating back to 2008. The last two matchups weren’t even close, with SDSU winning by more than 20 points each time. While New Mexico’s QB Devon Dampier brings a lot of excitement to the field, this SDSU defense is built to disrupt. New Mexico has a turnover problem, coughing up the ball 18 times this season, compared to SDSU’s disciplined seven turnovers. The Aztecs' defensive front also poses a tough challenge for Dampier, as they rank fourth in the nation for sacks, a stat Dampier hasn’t had to face much yet. Both teams struggle with penalties, but New Mexico’s undisciplined style is particularly costly. And though SDSU head coach Sean Lewis is known for his uptempo approach, this offense actually runs fewer plays per game than New Mexico. Ultimately, the Aztecs’ defense and the Lobos’ shaky ball security give SDSU a clear edge heading into this matchup.

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Alabama -2.5 Over LSU

I’m taking Alabama -2.5 over LSU this week. With both teams fighting for any remaining shot at a College Football Playoff berth and SEC Championship hopes, the stakes in Death Valley couldn’t be higher. Alabama comes in rested and confident off a 34-0 shutout over Missouri, and QB Jalen Milroe has proven he’s up to the challenge, especially after shredding LSU’s defense last season with 219 passing yards, 155 rushing yards, and four touchdowns. Milroe’s dual-threat abilities are key to keeping Alabama’s offense rolling, which ranks 16th nationally in scoring. Alabama’s defense has struggled but they got a major confidence boost last game by holding Missouri to just 239 total yards. LSU’s struggling run game, one of the worst in the SEC, will also play to the Tide’s advantage. And with Tigers QB Garrett Nussmeier’s inconsistencies under pressure, Alabama’s defense will look to capitalize on its top-20 scoring defense to keep the heat on him. Ultimately, I don’t trust LSU head coach Brian Kelly to have his football team ready.

Carson Beck Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

I'm backing Carson Beck to go over 1.5 touchdowns against Ole Miss. Despite his recent turnover struggles, Beck has still managed to throw for over 1.5 touchdowns in each of his last three games. While his issues with forcing throws have been costly this matchup has all the makings of a high-scoring shootout. Both teams are likely to hit the over, and for Georgia to keep up, they'll need Beck to keep finding the end zone through the air.