This or That: 2025 Rookie Pick Edition (1st Round)

Kevin breaks down each 2025 first-round rookie pick, evaluating whether it's better to keep it or trade it for an equivalent player in dynasty fantasy football.

When it comes to dynasty fantasy football, few debates spark as much discussion as the value of rookie picks versus established players. With the 2025 rookie class taking shape, it's time to put those coveted first-round selections to the test. In this edition of This or That, we’ll go pick by pick, breaking down whether we'd rather have the draft slot or a player of equivalent value in dynasty leagues. Should you hold onto your pick and bet on the upside of next year’s class, or cash in now for proven production?

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Before we dive into our player vs. pick showdown, here’s a look at my latest 2025 Rookie Big Board. This serves as a baseline for evaluating each pick’s value in comparison to established dynasty assets.

I’m using Dynasty Data Lab to pull comparable player values, ensuring each decision is backed by real market trends. Now, let’s see whether the picks or the players come out on top!

RB Travis Etienne OR 1.12

Pick: 1.12

I’m taking the pick here, but I still believe Etienne is a sneaky buy-low in the mid-second range. Based on ADP, he’s being valued right at 1.12, and I’d rather have the flexibility in a loaded RB class.

Etienne’s value has been all over the place. He saw a big ADP spike on Underdog, jumping 34 spots in drafts. But let’s be real—he was one of the biggest fantasy busts in 2024. Drafted as the RB7, he lost work to Tank Bigsby and finished as the RB35. His points per game dropped from 16.6 to just 8.7, and he left a lot of managers frustrated.

He’s still only 26 and entering a contract year, which is intriguing. New head coach Liam Coen has used committees but eventually leaned on a featured back last season in Tampa. If Etienne earns that role, he could bounce back—but at this price, I’d rather take the pick and reassess.

WR Chris Godwin OR 1.11

Pick: Chris Godwin

This one’s close, but I’ll lean Godwin if you need a WR. The dude has been a model of consistency since entering the league, ranking second in Bucs history in receptions (579), yards (7,266), and touchdowns (39)—only trailing Mike Evans. He was leading the NFL in receptions (50) and YAC (342) before a brutal ankle injury cut his 2024 season short.

Now, the key factor: where does he land? With Tee Higgins likely getting tagged, Godwin will be one of the top WRs available in free agency. If he stays in Tampa, he’ll remain a reliable WR2. If he lands somewhere with a better QB situation, we could see a serious value spike.

At this price, I’m buying. The floor is solid, and the upside is massive depending on his next destination.

RB Alvin Kamara OR 1.10

Pick: Alvin Kamara

It might be a bit pricey, but I’m in on Kamara at this price if you need an RB on a contender. Kellen Moore made it clear in his introductory press conference that Kamara will remain a key part of the Saints' offense, and that’s all I needed to hear. Moore has an impressive track record, running top offenses in Dallas, the Chargers, and most recently, the Eagles—where he leaned heavily on the ground game en route to a Super Bowl win.

Kamara has been the guy in New Orleans since 2017, consistently producing, never dipping below 211 fantasy points in any season. Even at 30, he’s coming off an RB11 finish in 2024 and should see an increased workload under Moore. The Saints still have question marks at QB, but that only solidifies Kamara’s role as the offensive engine.

He may not have many elite years left, but for the next season or two, Kamara is primed to put up top-10 numbers again. If you’re contending, he’s worth the price.

TE Dalton Kincaid OR 1.09

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