NFL Week 7 Starts, Sits, Picks, & Best Bets

Christian Williams examines the NFL Week 7 slate to determine who to start and sit in fantasy football and the best bets to make this weekend.

The NFL is shaking up with two major wideout trades this week. Amari Cooper may debut his red and blue for Buffalo this weekend, but Davante Adams will definitely put on a new shade of green with his former quarterback. It’s an exciting time for Jets and Bills fans, but Raiders and Browns fans are in the familiar headspace of looking toward the NFL Draft. Here’s how I see the rest of the slate playing out this week.

Starts

Anthony Richardson (QB - IND) vs. MIA

ECR Ranking: QB15

Richardson is set to return this week, and it seems that rankers have forgotten how elite he is in fantasy. Add in how he fixed his mechanical problems right before getting injured, and this has the potential for a total breakout game (not for fantasy; he’s already done that!). The Dolphins allow the fifth-most total yards per game, and with Jonathan Taylor potentially missing one more week, Richardson should factor into the rushing attack this week. Josh Downs rounded into form with Joe Flacco in the last few weeks and should continue building off those impressive performances with Richardson. Richardson may finish as the QB1 this week and should be in your lineup.

Nick Chubb (RB - CLE) vs. CIN

ECR Ranking: RB30

No one knows what Chubb’s snap count will be this week, but if his recovery indicates anything, I’d bet he touches the ball 12-15 times. The last time he played a full season, he averaged over six yards per touch. While that efficiency will undoubtedly come down, the Browns have succeeded in their rushing attack with D’Onta Foreman and Jerome Ford despite the horrid quarterback play. Cincinnati has the fifth-worst rushing defense, and the potential for a snap or touch limit doesn’t scare me off of Chubb this week. Honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if he found the end zone on one of his first touches.

DeMario Douglas (WR - NE) at JAX

ECR Ranking: WR32

Douglas posted his second-lowest route share (64.3%) in Week 6 and still posted his highest target share of the season with Drake Maye at the helm. Maye’s health is something to watch, as he had to get an MRI earlier this week. Still, if the rookie starts, Douglas’ efficiency should result in an increased snap and route share, and thus, an even more impressive performance against one of the worst defenses in football.

Sits

Sam Darnold (QB - MIN) vs. DET

ECR Ranking: QB9

Detroit has an above-average unit and ranks 20th against opposing quarterbacks in fantasy. Darnold came back to reality against the Jets the last time we saw him, and it could be more of the same this week. The Lions lost their best pass rusher, but Aaron Glenn should get creative to put Darnold under duress this week. It won’t be as hard as it may have been in Week 1, as Darnold’s time to throw has increased each week thus far. Detroit has the defensive weapons and scheme to continue that trend, and I’d rather sit Darnold if I had a better option available.

De’Von Achane (RB - MIA) at IND

ECR Ranking: RB18

The Colts are a favorable matchup, but Achane has been bad this year, especially since Tua Tagovailoa’s departure from the lineup. Candidly, I don’t want any part of the Dolphins’ offense until the quarterback returns. Coming out of the bye, it wouldn’t shock me if Achane’s snap share is way down as the team looks to get a more physical runner in the game to keep possession longer (ahem… Jaylen Wright time?). I’d be avoiding Achane this week and utilizing him as a desperate flex play.

Picks

Through six weeks, my picks against the spread are 51-39-1. Here are my picks this weekend.

Denver Broncos at New Orleans Saints (+3)

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5.5)

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+6)

Detroit Lions (+1.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Houston Texans (+3) at Green Bay Packers

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-3)

Philadelphia Eagles (-3) at New York Giants

Seattle Seahawks at Atlanta Falcons (-3)

Tennessee Titans (+9) at Buffalo Bills

Carolina Panthers (+8) at Washington Commanders

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)

Kansas City Chiefs (+1.5) at San Francisco 49ers

New York Jets (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5)

Best Bets

The best bets are 13-11 this season. Here are my favorites this weekend.

New York Jets (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

With the Steelers likely putting their worse quarterback in the game against an underrated pass rush, combined with rookie Zach Frazier being out of the lineup this week, I think the Jets could win this with two touchdowns. Luckily, Davante Adams is set to play, and the Steelers’ predictable secondary and lack of talent behind Joey Porter Jr. should allow the Jets to put up more than just two touchdowns.