NFL Week 6 Starts, Sits, Picks, & Best Bets

Christian Williams examines the NFL Week 6 slate to determine who to start and sit in fantasy football and the best bets to make this weekend.

The NFL season is flying, and we’ve made it past the first quarter of the fantasy football season. With injuries starting to accumulate, the need for spot-starters has increased. Here’s how I see this week playing out.

Starts

Geno Smith (QB - SEA) vs. SF

ECR Ranking: QB16

On paper, this is the correct ranking for Smith this week. The 49ers’ defense ranks inside the top 10, and the talk out of the Week 5 disappointment is a focus on running the ball. Still, Geno ranks 12th in fantasy points per dropback, and attention to the run should only make the passing game more efficient against a team giving up the 17th-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Smith isn’t the sexiest start this week, but he should give you backend QB1 numbers in a week of uncertainty at the QB position.

Tyler Goodson (RB - IND) at TEN

ECR Ranking: RB46

Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon are battling injuries. The Colts’ rushing attack ranks 9th in the league when Anthony Richardson starts (he’s trending upward, logging a limited practice to kick off this week). Goodson has been efficient, and the Titans are a middle-of-the-pack defense against the run. While Goodson’s inclusion in lineups depends on Taylor and Sermon’s availabilities, the opportunity he may see should make him a solid flex play in a week full of injuries and bye-week players.

George Pickens (WR - PIT) at LV

ECR Ranking: WR29

The concern about Pickens’ effort levels and snap counts are legitimate and probably play into his lower ranking this week. Still, Pickens is fifth in the league in fantasy points per dropback against Cover 2 and 15th in the league in the same stat against Cover 3. The Raiders play Cover 2 17.9% of the time (8th-highest in the league), and they’re league-average in Cover 3 implementation this year. They do play a lot of man concepts, and Pickens has struggled there, but with his big-play ability and hopefully more intentional usage, Pickens should have a fine day. The passing offense should look much better this week than during Sunday Night Football, and Pickens finding the end zone this week feels likely.

Hunter Henry (TE - NE) vs. HOU

ECR Ranking: TE20

Nothing points to a big game for Henry other than the notion that Drake Maye likes throwing to his tight ends and faith in the offense performing more efficiently with the insertion of a better quarterback. Henry’s sure-handedness and the need for quick stick-movers should put Henry in a position to gather at least 5-6 targets this week. Henry finding the end zone with a more efficient offense shouldn’t shock many.

Sits

Travis Etienne (RB - JAX) at CHI

ECR Ranking: RB21

Etienne’s injury and Tank Bigsby’s total emergence in Week 5 should put Etienne in a tough spot against a stout run defense this week. We’ve been monitoring this trend for a while, but it seems like it may be turning fully in Bigsby’s favor. Bigsby has simply been one of the best running backs in the NFL, and keeping him off the field, especially with his strong, tough running style, would be a mistake for a Jaguars team looking to break through a talented Chicago defensive line.

Picks

Through four weeks, my picks against the spread are 39-37-1. Here are my picks this weekend.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

Washington Commanders at Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at New Orleans Saints

Cleveland Browns (+9.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

Indianapolis Colts (+2.5) at Tennessee Titans

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (+6.5)

Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Las Vegas Raiders

Atlanta Falcons (-6.5) at Carolina Panthers

Detroit Lions (-3) at Dallas Cowboys

Cincinnati Bengals at New York Giants (+3.5)

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New York Jets

Best Bets

The best bets are 11-9 this season. Here are my favorites this weekend.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-1.5)

The Bears are coming off a dominant Week 5 performance against Carolina, but more importantly, they got their asses straight to London following the victory. The Jaguars haven’t arrived at the time of this article’s release, and jet lag and time-zone adjustment could factor into the team’s performance significantly. Aside from that, the Bears found more success on offense despite an imperfect Caleb Williams performance, still have one of the strongest secondaries in the NFL, and are building momentum in all three facets of the game.