NFL Week 5 Starts, Sits, Picks, & Best Bets

Christian Williams examines the NFL Week 5 slate to determine who to start and sit in fantasy football and the best bets to make this weekend.

The NFL season is flying, and we’ve made it past the first quarter of the fantasy football season. With injuries starting to accumulate, the need for spot-starters has increased. Here’s how I see this week playing out.

Starts

Trevor Lawrence (QB - JAX) vs. IND

ECR Ranking: QB16

Lawrence hasn’t yet put everything together, and the film is the worst since his rookie year. The offensive playcalling has been abysmal, and there aren’t many signs that will turn around significantly as the season progresses unless major changes are made to the coaching staff. Still, the Colts are allowing 235 passing yards per game, which is good for 26th in the NFL, and Evan Engram is set to return from injury. That, combined with Brian Thomas’ emergence as a bonafide No. 1 and Christian Kirk’s resurgence over the last two weeks, offers hope that, at least against this Colts defense, Lawrence can score some fantasy points.

Chase Brown (RB - CIN) vs. BAL

ECR Ranking: RB27

Over the last three weeks, Brown has seen an increase in snaps: 20% in Week 2, 24% in Week 3, and 40% in Week 4. In that span, Brown has averaged 7.3 yards per attempt, caught four balls, and scored two touchdowns in the Bengals’ win last week. Zack Moss has gotten a ton of volume, which won’t change drastically against a stout Ravens defense. Still, Brown’s efficiency and explosiveness will be needed if the Bengals want to win, and the ever-increasing workload should continue trending upward this week. He’s a solid flex play and worth a flier as an RB2 for teams facing injury or bye-week problems.

Josh Downs (WR - IND) at JAX

ECR Ranking: WR44

Joe Flacco helped Downs dominate Week 4, and Anthony Richardson should be back this week. Still, Richardson was good when throwing the ball before leaving due to injury, even hitting Downs on a nice throw over the middle. With the Colts likely to be in an offensive duel, Downs should factor into the passing attack again, and Richardson’s accuracy issues may be fixed (or at least improved). The Jaguars’ secondary allows the fifth-most points to opposing wideouts, and Downs might be the best target in Indianapolis. I’d start him as a WR2 this week without hesitation.

Cade Otton (TE - TB) at ATL

ECR Ranking: TE22

Otton is one of the leaders in tight end snap share, resulting in 17 targets, 13 receptions, and 99 yards over the last two weeks. Following snaps and targets is traditionally a fine path when looking for spot-starters at the tight end position, and the Falcons haven’t been dominant against opposing tight ends to this point. While many expect a low-scoring, defense-driven game on Thursday night, I think both offenses can be efficient, and Otton finding the end zone wouldn’t surprise me. He’s a fine start as a low-end TE1.

Sits

Jayden Daniels (QB - WAS) vs. CLE

ECR Ranking: QB3

Sitting the QB1 sounds pretty crazy, I understand. But the Browns are dominating opposing quarterbacks with an elite pass rush, and the Commanders’ offensive line has punched above its weight thus far. While Kliff Kingsbury should scheme up some quick game to move the ball, the dominance we’ve seen from Daniels to this point shouldn’t be expected in Week 5. Daniels is a solid QB2 this week, but it's okay to pivot if you have a safer option with a better matchup.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB - NE) vs. MIA

ECR Ranking: RB16

According to Jerod Mayo, Stevenson may not start this week after fumbling issues have plagued him this season. While the Dolphins pose less of a threat than the last two matchups, the risk of lower volume crushes Stevenson’s value. Volume drives his value in the first place, as he’s one of the least efficient backs behind a bad offensive line. There are better options (Chase Brown is one) than a running back attempting to beat doghouse allegations. I’d keep Stevenson out of my flex this week, as well.

Diontae Johnson (WR - CAR) at CHI

ECR Ranking: WR11

Johnson missed yesterday's practice with an ankle injury, but I’d sit a healthy Johnson against the Bears’ defense. While the Panthers’ offensive line has held up this year, and the Bears’ secondary has largely underperformed, Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon should give Andy Dalton and the receiving core issues. Johnson has dominated the last two weeks, but the Bears effectively eliminate No. 1 wideouts (except Nico Collins, one of the five best wideouts in the league) as they’ve allowed the 6th-least fantasy points to the position. Pivoting from Johnson seems contrarian, but following the points against a strong secondary and without regard for an ankle injury seems risky. Johnson is more of a WR3 this week and should be considered for a flex play, but tempered expectations are recommended.

Kyle Pitts (TE - ATL) vs. TB

ECR Ranking: TE9

This will be the week that Pitts goes off, but I’m more comfortable letting that happen on my bench now. Pitts is playing under 70% of the snaps and averaging fewer than four targets per game. He has just six more targets than Mark Andrews (sit him, too!), and it’s simply not worth worrying about. Pick up Otton, Freiermuth, or others from waivers and take a swing that way.

Picks

Through four weeks, my picks against the spread are 36-28. Here are my picks this weekend.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1.5) at Atlanta Falcons

New York Jets (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5)

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans (+1)

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-4)

Cleveland Browns (+3) at Washington Commanders

Indianapolis Colts (+3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-1)

Arizona Cardinals (+7) at San Francisco 49ers

Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos

Green Bay Packers at Los Angeles Rams (+3)

New York Giants (+6) at Seattle Seahawks

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5)

New Orleans Saints (+5.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

Best Bets

The best bets are 9-7 this season. Here are my favorites this weekend.