Devy Bounce-Back Candidates

Kevin identifies devy assets who could have a bounce-back season in 2024.

Navigating the world of devy football is like charting a course through turbulent waters—full of unpredictable shifts and fluctuating tides. In this fiercely competitive format, player values can skyrocket one season only to plummet the next, creating a challenging environment for managers to navigate. However, amidst this volatility lies an opportunity for managers to identify players who could have a bounce-back season and reclaim some of that lost value. This article looks at ten players who lost value in 2023 and determines whether they could have a bounce-back year in 2024.

Raheim Sanders, RB, South Carolina Gamecocks

DEVY ADP: 8th Round

Sanders lost more value in 2023 than any other devy asset in college football. Before 2023, many were taking Sanders as RB1 over TreVeyon Henderson. The first red flag was Sanders weighing in at a reported 245 pounds in fall camp. Then, after, he just could not stay healthy, rushing for only 209 yards all season for Arkansas. He then sustained a labrum tear during the Razorbacks' last game of the 2023 season and underwent surgery in December that has knocked him out of all team activities for his new team. While there are plenty of red flags for the new Gamecock running back, there are also signs of hope for the transfer.

Sanders was a first-team All-SEC pick in 2022, amassing 1,443 rushing yards and 12 total touchdowns that year. He holds the No. 3 spot among running backs in the 247Sports Transfer Rankings and is ranked as the No. 34 player overall. Based on early reports, he is also looking to shed the extra pounds he gained last season and would like to return to 230-235 pounds. If he does that, he could give the Gamecocks their best runner since former 1,000-yard rusher Kevin Harris. They need it, considering their offense was second-to-last nationally in rushing yards per carry among FBS teams last season.

The Gamecocks will start quarterback LaNorris Sellers, the ultimate wildcard for this offense. If Sanders can return to his 2022 version, he could play a pivotal role in providing leadership and allowing the offense to be run through him. If he does that, devy managers will be able to regain some of the value they lost due to his bad 2023 season.

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TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State Buckeyes

DEVY ADP: 1st Round

Ironically, the next player on this list is TreVeyon Henderson. Both Henderson and Sanders were deemed as can’t-miss prospects heading into last season, which should tell you everything you need to know about the volatility of the position over the years.

Henderson was the highest-ranked running back in the 2021 recruiting class. He quickly secured the starting job for the Buckeyes, rushing for 1,248 yards and 15 touchdowns in his freshman year, and he looked like one of the best running backs in college football. Many, myself included, put him in the same category as Bijan Robinson. But Henderson has yet to live up to those lofty expectations, mainly because of his lack of availability and inability to stay healthy.

In his sophomore season, he missed five games because of a broken bone in his left foot that required surgery in December, which caused him to miss their showdown with Georgia in the College Football Playoff. Had they had Henderson, they most likely would have won the National Championship that season.

Last season, he suffered through a myriad of lower body injuries again and played in ten games but has maybe been healthy in half of them. He rushed for 926 yards on 156 attempts and eleven touchdowns. He also stepped back as a runner between the tackles and even looked like he lost burst at the line of scrimmage. There’s a reason why the coaching staff brought in Ole Miss running back Quinshon Judkins. With Judkins, Henderson will be under pressure to perform this year and bounce back. The limited usage could keep him healthy, but he must show flashes when he gets his number called. If he can show NFL scouts that he can stay healthy and regain his explosiveness, he could drastically improve his draft outlook next April.

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Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn Tigers

DEVY ADP: 6th Round

Running back Jarquez Hunter faced high expectations heading into last season. Having served as a backup to Tank Bigsby for the previous two seasons, his impressive 6.5 yards per carry average during his freshman and sophomore years had fans eager to see his performance as the lead back. In Auburn’s 2023 season, Hunter spearheaded the Tigers' running back group, rushing for 909 yards and seven touchdowns on 159 carries, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. His 909 rushing yards placed him seventh in the SEC in 2023. Since then, the six SEC rushers who ranked above him have either transferred or declared for the NFL Draft, which is one of the reasons many analysts think Hunter has a chance to break out this season.

Looking at the depth chart, Hunter has the most experience and should be RB1 on the roster. The other running backs in this group are Damari Alston and Jeremiah Cobb. Brian Battie will be out for the season and most likely for his career after being shot this off-season and suffering a traumatic brain injury. Thankfully, he is out of the ICU, and his family has said he is making positive progress.

Alston is expected to be the second-string running back and has the potential to be Auburn’s next great running back. He should provide the Tigers with a nice depth piece in the backfield. Cobb also showed flashes of potential last year, and the coaching staff raved about him.

Head coach Hugh Freeze has a history of running back production, and Hunter should be in line for the most volume he has seen as a back in this Auburn system. He should also be involved in the passing game, his greatest strength and the #1 reason fantasy managers should have Hunter on their radar. Hunter’s experience in the system and Auburn’s improved offensive line could see him bounce back up the 2025 running back ranks as the season unfolds.

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Drew Allar, QB, Penn State Nittany Lions

DEVY ADP: 4th Round

Drew Allar’s value has plummeted this off-season, mainly due to a pedestrian sophomore season where he took over as QB1 for the first time in his career. He finished the season with 2,631 yards on 233/389 passing, twenty-five touchdowns, and just two interceptions. By most measures, Allar had an excellent first season as Penn State's starting quarterback. His 25/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio finished as one of the best in the nation for 2023, and he ranked fourth in the Big Ten with a quarterback rating of 136.

However, there were areas for improvement. In Penn State's three losses, his quarterback rating dropped to 100, with only four of his 25 touchdown passes occurring in those games. Here’s how his stat lines looked in those three games:

• AT Ohio State (20-12) LOSS

  • 18/42 191 YDS 42.9% 1 TD 0 INT

• VS. Michigan (24-15) LOSS

  • 10/22 70 YDS 45.5% 1 TD 0 INT

• Bowl Game VS. Ole Miss (38-25) LOSS

  • 19/39 295 YDS 48.7% 2 TD 1 INT

His season average of 59.9 percent completion was his biggest red flag, especially given that Penn State ranked 109th nationally in pass plays of 20 yards or more. The explosiveness in that offense just wasn’t there. Part of that can be blamed on coaching, and James Franklin calls games conservatively. But some of the blame needs to be put on Allar. To Franklin’s credit, he looked to address those concerns and add a change at offensive coordinator.

Franklin brought in Andy Kotelnicky, the former Kansas offensive coordinator. Over the past three seasons, Kotelnicki's Kansas offense has been highly explosive. The team ranked 12th nationally in plays of 20+ yards (8.3%), 15th in plays of 30+ yards (3.89%), and 11th in plays of 40+ yards (2.12%). Additionally, Kansas was 10th in the country for 15+ yard pass plays (20.97%). During this three-year period, the Jayhawks scored 40+ points in nine games and 50+ points in five games.

The Nittany Lions have arguably the best running back room in the country, with Nicholas Singleton, Kaytron Allen, Cam Wallace, and true freshman Quinton Martin Jr. But their receiving room is unproven. Julian Fleming, an Ohio State transfer, has never lived up to expectations; Harrison Wallace III is an explosive playmaker but has failed to produce meaningful numbers; and Kaden Saunders is another highly touted recruit who has yet to live up to his potential. Allar will need to develop and elevate that room if they are going to be successful and compete for a Big Ten title. The jury is still out on whether he has the talent to do that.

Based on his current market value, many expect Allar not to get better this year, but I think it’s too early to give up on the young quarterback. The new coaching change will dramatically help, and last year was his first full year as a starter. If this team buys into the system change and Allar can be more consistent as a passer, we could see a first-round quarterback in 2025.

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Antonio Williams, WR, Clemson

DEVY ADP: 4th Round