2025 Rookie Draft ADP

Kevin works through the most current TDR Rookie Draft ADP and talks about some potential players to watch.

The dynasty fantasy football offseason is in full swing, and it’s time to dig into some early rookie draft trends. Using data collected from our latest rookie mock drafts, we’ve compiled the Average Draft Position (ADP) for the top players across four rounds. In this article, we’ll break down the results, highlight key takeaways, and discuss players who could be values—or traps—in your upcoming drafts.

Want to join the fun? You can participate in our rookie drafts! Simply click the Google link below, find an open draft, and add your name along with a way to contact you, either through Discord (@YourHandle) or Twitter (@YourHandle). It's the perfect way to test strategies, scout talent, and connect with fellow dynasty managers.

Let’s dive into the first four rounds of rookie ADP and uncover what the data tells us about this year’s class! Our mocks are 12 Team/SF with a small 1.50 TE Premium bump.

Rookie Draft Link

If you want to dive deeper, here is one of our latest rookie mock draft videos in which Jay Stein goes deeper into his analytical model.

1st Round ADP

• 1.01 - Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty

• 1.02 - Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan

• 1.03 - Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders

• 1.04 - Missouri WR Luther Burden

• 1.05 - Miami QB Cam Ward

• 1.06 - North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton

• 1.07 - Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka

• 1.08 - Penn State TE Tyler Warren

• 1.09 - Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson

• 1.10 - Colorado WR Travis Hunter

• 1.11 - Ohio State RB Quinshon Judkins

• 1.12 - Michigan TE Colston Loveland

1st Round Tiers

Tier 1 (1.01-1.02)

The first tier of this year’s rookie class consists of two elite prospects: Ashton Jeanty and Tetairoa McMillan. These players are the clear top options, and if you hold one of these picks, you effectively control the draft. Managers in this position have immense leverage, whether they’re looking to secure premium talent or trade down for a haul.

Tier 2 (1.03-1.05)

The second tier spans the next three picks, offering a lot of flexibility. While this quarterback class might be underwhelming overall, any signal-callers selected in the NFL Draft’s first round could easily slot into this range. If you’re a contender, these picks are prime trade capital to acquire a veteran contributor. Or you could look to move back and add more capital. These picks add more flexibility to your strategy. Alternatively, you could hold firm and land either the best available running back or wide receiver, making this tier a sweet spot for value.

Tier 3 (1.06-1.12)

The gap between picks 1.06 and 1.12 isn’t significant at the moment. Without a third quarterback rising into first-round conversations—think names like Jalen Milroe, Jaxson Dart, Drew Allar, or Quinn Ewers—this range lacks distinction outside of specific formats like TE premium leagues. My advice? If you’re sitting in this tier, explore moving up into the top five to secure a higher-tier prospect. Otherwise, you may be settling for a similar level of talent regardless of your selection.

2025 Pick Values

• Early 2025 1st

  • Bo Nix

  • Drake London

  • Garrett Wilson

  • Breece Hall

  • Ladd McConkey

• Mid 2025 1st

  • Jonathan Taylor

  • Bucky Irving

  • James Cook

  • Jordan Addison

  • Rashee Rice

• Late 2025 1st

  • Chris Olave

  • Kenneth Walker III

  • Jameson Williams

  • Anthony Richardson

  • Jaylen Waddle

Round 1 Player Spotlight - Missouri WR Luther Burden

Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III is an electric playmaker who will likely be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Standing 5’11” and weighing 205 pounds, the 21-year-old boasts a compact frame and an impressive 28.6 BMI, which he uses to excel as a physical and explosive receiver. Known for his ability to create yardage after the catch, Burden’s skills are reminiscent of players like Deebo Samuel and DJ Moore, capable of transforming short passes into chunk plays with his vision, balance, and burst.

In 2024, Burden recorded 80 targets, 61 receptions, 676 receiving yards, and six touchdowns, plus an additional score on the ground. His 6.1 yards after catch per reception stands out, showcasing his knack for maximizing opportunities in open space. His slot usage increased to 85.3% this season, up from approximately 82% in 2023, and his average depth of target (aDOT) climbed to 9.0 yards—marking a slight but important progression in his role as a receiver. Although his yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) metric has dipped slightly in 2024, his weighted dominator rating and expected points added per play remain strong, signaling his continued growth as a dynamic offensive weapon.

Burden’s skill set makes him a fascinating NFL prospect. With exceptional ball skills and reliable hands, he excels at catching passes outside his frame and quickly turning them into big plays. His instincts as a ball carrier are elite, enabling him to navigate through traffic, anticipate pursuit angles, and slip tackles with ease. Missouri’s offense has leveraged his explosiveness by placing him in motion or using stacked alignments to provide free releases, allowing him to capitalize on his strengths in the open field.

That said, there’s room for growth. Burden’s experience on the perimeter is limited, and his route tree has been relatively constrained, with most of his targets coming on vertical routes, crossers, and screens. He’ll need to refine his release techniques and expand his route running to consistently win against NFL defenses. Additionally, his blocking remains an area for improvement, as he hasn’t demonstrated the intensity or technique needed to contribute effectively in the run game. There were also some concerns this season based on his maturity and focus throughout the year, with some questioning his effort level. The pre-draft interviews will be essential for him as a prospect along with the athletic testing.

Burden’s transition to the NFL will depend heavily on the creativity of his offensive coordinator. Schemes that utilize pre-snap motion and prioritize getting the ball into his hands quickly will maximize his potential early in his career. While he may initially thrive as a complementary weapon, his upside suggests he could eventually develop into a featured player within an NFL offense. Teams looking for a versatile, big-play threat with kick return experience and the ability to create mismatches in the slot will find Burden to be an enticing addition to their roster.

2nd Round ADP

• 2.01 - Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson

• 2.02 - Penn State RB Nick Singleton

• 2.03 - Texas WR Isaiah Bond

• 2.04 - Miami WR Xavier Restrepo

• 2.05 - Alabama QB Jalen Milroe

• 2.06 - Ole Miss WR Tre Harris

• 2.07 - Stanford WR Eilc Ayomanor

• 2.08 - Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon

• 2.09 - Tennessee RB Dylan Sampson

• 2.10 - Oregon WR Tez Johnson

• 2.11 - Oregon WR Evan Stewart

• 2.12 Bowling Green TE Harold Fannin Jr.

Dear Readers,

We’re an independent site thriving thanks to the support of our valued members. By signing up for our Substack or Patreon, you’re directly contributing to keeping our business running. Subscribing to Patreon grants you access to Substack content and all of our exclusive material. Your support is crucial, and we sincerely appreciate your commitment.

Thank you for helping us continue our work.

2nd Round Takeaways

The second round of rookie drafts offers a mix of intrigue and uncertainty, particularly when it comes to players who might not even declare for the NFL Draft. Let’s break it down.

Potential Returnees